Italy: Demographic Case Study

Aging Population

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Figure 9: Italy's Population Dynamics
_ As a high percentage of Italy's population ages, less people will be able to support them. 20.2% of the population is over 65 and that number is expected to rise.

Italian women born in the baby boom era are leaving their childbearing years. For years, Italy's birth rate has been supplemented by the presence of foreigners — from 6.5 per cent of the total births in 1999 decade ago to nearly 19 per cent in 2009.

Measures to reverse the birthrate drop require "millions in investment," Italy's Youth Minister Giorgia Meloni said. "That we can't do, because of the financial crisis."

(Canadian Press and CIA World Factbook)



Declining Population

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Figure 10: 'We blame immigrants for the violence'
Italy's population is also declining with a population growth rate of -0.075%. As a result, Italy is predicted to lose 25% of its population by 2060. This is problematic as a smaller population equates to a smaller labour force.

Because deaths outnumber births in Italy, to maintain a stable population, migrants must come to Italy.The average age of immigrants  is 31.1 years old, and over 1/5 of immigrants are under 17, so they have high potential for starting a family in Italy



 However, the Italian immigration process is not very welcoming of migrants. Italy introduced an "anti-immigrant" law in 2009 which made illegal immigrants liable to pay 10,000 euros, and can be detained up to 6
months. In reality though, almost no immigrant would be able to pay this 10,000 euro fine. Immigrants that do make it to Italy often are put in camps and pay significantly less than a Italian citizen. This video further explains Italy's Immigration laws. (Also Video in Additional Resources "Italy's Modern Slaves: Migrants"


(Adnkronos News and The Economist)

Pensions

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Figure 11: Forecast for Dependency Ratios in Different Countries
Currently there are 12.7 million pensioners in Italy, accounting for 21.6% of the population in 2006 compared with 18.0% for the Western European average. Pensioners represent a large burden of Italy's tax money (14% of GDP). In fact, Italy spends the most money on pensions of all countries in the European Union (Seen in Figure 12). With life expectancy so high in Italy, pensions would be paid out for a long time as people would live 20-30 years after they retire. The dependency level in Italy is currently at 34.3 percent (aged under 15 and over 65) and will rise to about 66 percent in 2050, as seen in Figure 11. Obviously as the dependency level rises, that means there will be more old people, who would require pensions.


(Clouded Outlook, US Census Bureau and Economics Help)


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Figure 12: Comparison of Pension Programs of European Countries